We already had our Black Friday-type crash. It occurred in early October 2008. It was a controlled crash due to many of the safeguards in place after Black Friday. March 2009 was the market bottom from the recession. I believe we will retrace to about 9025 on the DOW by the end of October and from there the market will bounce back up. 9025 is about a 10% correction from the recent top.

As mentioned in the article, you can see the standard deviation spike in the October 2008 timeframe.

Regardless of what we all believe is next, I want to say that black swan article is outstanding.
Anyone who takes the time to read through that will not be sorry.
The article is helpful to free our minds of those restrictions and consider that anything really can happen.

As Sheree and Egis said, we may have just had our only anomaly, last October, finally bottoming in March. But who is to say we can't have another? Who is even to say the next black swan is not a bullish one? (hope,hope,hope). What if this whole massive whipsaw the market is in the midst of, is one big black swan. Is it possible we'll look back on this period as the housing bubble being immediately followed by the money printing bubble? Of course bubble's burst but we don't know when. You could argue every market rally has been a bubble, just the nature of economics. This market has already defied all logic based on the past.

But these are the musings of an amateur. Its hard to argue against prevailing wisdom, self fulfilling prophecies and what's happened 99% or even 100% of the time in the past. When that thing that is expected happens, those who stubbornly believed the opposite are considered morons. When it doesn't the majority shake their heads wondering how others could possibly have known. In the end, they just dub them morons anyway, but lucky ones. If we have the success with SIRI we hope for and even expect, that line of thinking will surely be applied to the mavericks (ugh that word!) who stuck it out.

Still anomalies are rare and I do appreciate the warnings that Brandon and others have sounded here at Satwaves. I tend to look for the positives, even more so when most are expecting bad things. But carelessness is stupidity and I'm heeding those warnings. With the MMs we have for SIRI, I'm not a big fan of stop losses. I have some homework to do on put options. Being a little less bullish on SIRI right now and giving more consideration to trading this is another option for me to consider.

I agree, but we need to measure risk in order to understand that a 10% market correction does not translate into a 10% drop in all stocks.

Overbought sectors like banks may see 75% declines, while media sectors like ours may see only a 1 % decline...a 10% average can be attained in many ways....

Except that SIRI stockholders tend to be so skittish, it seems any market correction would suck us down with it.

1% decline in Media (aka. Sirius) would do nicely. Thanks.

Looks like the chart is still showing the market (DOW) in an upward overall channel. The action we are seeing there very much reminds me of the mocement of Sirius over the past month. I have my 401K ready for any major events. I think SIRI will make it through any downturn just fine.

Sirius is the only long I trust to own right now.

NYSE going south on us...we are very close to seeing the bottom fall out of the market...

While i may not completely agree with this, thanks for the heads-up Brandon. I had decided to sit out October and possibly part of November in my 401k because of this data. I am sitting on a nice gain already. No sense in risking the downside, if this market pulls back some.

Posting on this topic is difficult at the moment b/c the market really could go either way. And my thoughts, as newbie as they are can still influence some. Last thing I want to do is influence but only discuss.
As with so many charts, our current world view impacts what we see in the chart. In so many of our past economic crisis and recessions the media has had us fearful of another great depression. One of these times it could really turn out to be true, or this could be another correction and life goes on.

So with that said, I do take exception with the statement that every time nyse bullish% index crosses from over 70 to below 70 its been Armageddon.
In early Jan 2007, this occurred
http://seekingalpha.com/article/23998-n ... rty-s-over
We had a dow pullback from the high 12k's back to the low 12k's late feb, then headed to 14k in July. By Nov 07, we were heading over the hill on the start of the drop that finally bottomed in march 09. So while that does prove the indicator, it also shows the length of time this takes to playout. Its an overreaction IMO to say that this cross from 72 to over 69 means the W is upon us.
Also look at June of this year. It crossed from over 70 to below 70. We touched dow 8800 in mid June to about 8100 early July. During that time, SIRI did its own thing trading between low 30s and low to mid 40s. It was not sucked down by the market and actually may have been helped some by it. When the market resumed its climb, it seemed to suck some $ out of SIRI as I recall scratching my head at good news and the price dropping back into mid to high 30s.

In the end, while I agree with the idea of hedging your risk at all times... this market is full of true and false warning signals. Just when pessimism takes over, optimism comes in and vice versa. I have no doubt that the normal operation of the market requires this bpnya to come back into a comfortable range and that correction will bring with it some pain. But at this point, especially considering the fiscal year end for many mutual funds that just happened, I think its premature to declare Armageddon. Even next week's looming correction (barring some unexpected optimistic report), actually can help SIRI because some of the $ that would've gone into financials may come our way.