Net positive total Brandon......I happen to agree....though it all hinges on how much better actual auto promo sub numbers and self pay numbers are. Let's hope the true numbers followed the reported trends. I am looking for neutral to slightly positive subs Q2....Q3 is where the street gets blown away IMO. Do you see churn rate as stable unchanged....higher or lower? I think we may actually see churn reduced due to recent events from the BK rumors forward.....I mean the people who were going to consolidate subs or drop the service pretty much already did in Q1....don't you think?

XMp3 Portable Radio with Home Kit + FREE Vehicle Kit ($69.99 value)
Out of Stock
Price: $299.98
You Save: *terms -$89.99
You Pay: $209.99
Mail-In Rebate: -$80.00
Your Final Price:$129.99

XpressEZ with XM Sound System
Out of Stock
Price: $189.98
You Save: *terms -$84.00
You Pay: $105.98

XpressRC with Vehicle Kit & XM Sound System
Out of Stock
You Pay: $319.98



This is either (a) REALLY GOOD or (b) terrible news....I choose option A!

I think we'll see stabaliztion...also I canno6t hammer it home enough that we still have no GM contract details....may provide a windfall this quarter if preactivations are part of the new deal....

btw......I took the advice in your signature with regard to a certain poster. I had a long post all set....but I remember some comments you have made to me these last few weeks...and decided to let it go.

The way they worded the comments about the GM deal.....one would tend to think it has to include pre activations....at least that is how I saw it after it was addressed. Good info you put together....I see you have been busy this weekend....hope your 4th was good....and hope the family in Fla is doing well also!

I happen to disagree, unfortunately.

According to the data, 2,596,082 were sold in Q2. I assume a 60% installation rate. That would mean that Sirius/XM was installed in 1,557,649 cars. In Q1, the take rate for a subscription was 45%. That means out of all of those cars with radios sold, only about 700,942 people accepted the subscription.

Sirius XM Ended the quarter with 18,559,434 subscribers. Assuming an all-in monthly churn of 3% (which might actually be low), you end up losing 1,670,349 subscribers. Add on the 700,942 from above, and you reach a total of 17,590,027.

That represents a net LOSS of just under 1 million subscribers. And that does not include retail.

We have the potential to see some really bad subscriber numbers this quarter, in my opinion, but I think the revenue and cost cutting will more than make up for it. I used this formula to estimate subscriber numbers for Q1.

What metrics are you useing in your calculations guys?

I think the potential for disaster on sub numbers is there. But small. Here are the questions, we know the math. As Newman points out, its not good.
Will self pay churn go down? It might. Long time subs mad at channel changes, and extra charges may have cleared out by end of Q1, into Q1. BK scare kepts many subs away in Q1, I believe.
Will the take rate of 45% hold? I think it will go up, but only slightly. Economy did improve a bit, as did consumer confidence. With great deals on new buys, the potential to keep the sub increased, in my opinion.
Did any cars that were delayed from Chrysler plant actually get put into production, and out in time for Q2? I think this is a far fetched theory, and were a majority of promo sub losses will come from. That and the GM sales being bad. Domestic cars still account for the bulk of subs.
Did retail sales stop falling? Probably a little.
Did any subs from the Iphone count in Q2? Im going with no, theyd rather add them to Q3, when they will attempt to add subs, and post positive earnings in the same quarter.
Were they significant anyway? Probably not.
Was the used car deals in time to affect Q2. Probably not.
I think Newman is the extreme end, and Brandon is the other extreme.
Im expecting a sub loss of 120k to a max gain possible of 20k. But it would take everything falling into place. 300k loss would not suprise me. And im hoping self pay remains above 15 million.

So then you are only looking at net additions without factoring in churn. Got it.

no...that would be gross adds...i'm factoring in churn